Today, the Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB) released its second annual report to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change in tandem with its publication on Canada.ca. The NZAB’s mandate under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act is to provide independent advice to the Minister with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, including:

• greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045;
• emission reduction plans from the Government of Canada, including measures and sectoral strategies that the government could implement to achieve a GHG emissions target; and
• any matter referred to us by the Minister.

Last year, the Minister requested advice from the NZAB on how to achieve Canada’s 2030 target and on the setting of Canada’s 2035 target. To inform our advice, we engaged industry experts, academics, labour representatives, Indigenous partners and non-governmental organizations. Our advice on these topics, Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target and Closing the Gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions Gap was pre-published in September 2024, and comprise Volumes 2 and 3, respectively, of our second annual report. Volume 1 of our report includes an overview of activities undertaken since our last annual report and our strategic priorities. We look forward to the Minister’s response to the advice outlined in this second annual report.

Highlights

In October 2023, the Minister requested advice from NZAB to inform development of a 2035 target and ensure it is compatible with net-zero emissions by 2050. Volume 2, Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 target, offers 3 pieces of advice in response to this request.

1.       Develop a carbon budget

2.      Adopt a target of 50-55% below 2005

3.      Address Canada’s excess emissions

In July 2023, the Minister requested advice on additional measures that the Government of Canada could implement to achieve its 2030 emissions reduction target. Our advice, detailed in Volume 3, Closing the Gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions Target, focuses on 5 pieces of advice on how to finish what has been started, improve what exists, and then implement new policies:

1.       Finalize announced measures

2.      Address negative interactions

3.      Strengthen industrial carbon pricing

4.      Secure additional emission reductions from the oil and gas sector

5.      Evaluate and pursue additional measures.

Our Synthesis Report, also provides updates on our ongoing lines of inquiry from the first annual report including:

• net zero energy systems,
• net zero governance, and
• net zero industrial policy.

Building on our advice in Volume 2 to address Canada’s excess emissions, we have also commenced work on a new line of inquiry on the ways to address those emissions. Work on these lines of inquiry will set the stage for our third annual report.

Links

• Volume 1: Synthesis Report. Second Annual Report to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change
• Volume 2: Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target. Second Annual Report to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change
• Volume 3: Closing the Gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions Target. Second Annual Report to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change
• Twitter: @NZAB_Canada (External link)

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Net-Zero Advisory Body responds to today’s announcement of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions target for 2035 

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The Government of Canada announced today a national greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for the year 2035 of 45-50% below 2005 levels. As members of the Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB), a group of independent experts charged with providing independent advice to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, we encourage the government to strive to achieve, as a minimum, the upper end of the selected 45-50% target range.

In our recent report to the Minister, we recommended that the government adopt a reduction target of 50-55% by 2035. Our modelling and analysis showed that targets below 50% will put Canada behind on its legislated objective of net-zero emissions by mid-century. Postponing action means requiring even deeper decarbonization efforts in the future, which could bring higher risks and costs.

We need a national effort to reach, and ideally surpass, a 50% reduction by 2035 while ensuring climate policies are affordable for Canadians. Getting to this milestone, and realizing the many benefits of the transition to a low-carbon economy, will require greater ambition from provinces, territories, municipalities, the private sector as well as the federal government.

Ambitious climate plans are needed to take advantage of Canada’s opportunities in a low-carbon economy. Governments around the world are increasingly recognizing that decarbonization is a unique opportunity to increase economic prosperity and jobs, as well as human and environmental health. The UK announced the equivalent of a 78% reduction below 2005 levels for the year 2035, following the recommendation of its climate advisory group, the Climate Change Committee; the EU is expected to choose a 2035 target in a similar range. Japan has recently proposed a 60% reduction target, in order to stay on a pathway to net-zero. 

To facilitate climate action, we have also advised the government to develop a carbon budget, i.e. a total of intended future emissions. Carbon budgets are used by countries like the UK and France, as well as cities like Montreal and Edmonton, to better track the impact their emissions have on the planet. Annual targets only measure the amount of emissions in one year. Yet what matters to the climate is the total emissions over time. 

By setting a carbon budget, Canada can better connect the dots between its short-term targets and its long-term goal of net-zero emissions. Evidence from other jurisdictions shows that this cumulative approach to managing emissions helps motivate early action and highlights the trade-offs associated with policy decisions affecting different sectors.

The lower range of the government’s target risks Canada’s ability to stay on track for net-zero emissions. Not using a carbon budget approach further weakens the feedback needed to keep Canada on track. Our research supports our advice that including a carbon budget in Canada’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution, due to be submitted to the UN next year, would better facilitate the transition than point in time targets alone.

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The NZAB was established in 2021 through the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. We are mandated to provide the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with independent advice with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and on interim emissions targets. Our recent report, “Climate’s Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target”, was prepared in response to a request from the Minister for advice on the setting of Canada’s 2035 target. A companion report, “Closing the gap: Reaching Canada’s 2030 Emissions target”, provided advice on how to achieve Canada’s 2030 target.

Help us develop advice on Canada’s options to address excess emissions. Share your input on describing Canada’s net-zero energy system future and provincial and territorial contributions to Canada reaching net-zero.

The Net-Zero Advisory Body (NZAB) is mandated to provide the Minister of Environment and Climate Change with independent advice with respect to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Our independent advice takes into account the best scientific information available, Canada's international commitments with respect to climate change, and Indigenous knowledge.

Engagement is fundamental to the NZAB’s advice, ensuring that our advice to the Minister is informed and reflects the diverse perspectives from across Canada and requiring close collaboration with Indigenous partners, provinces and territories, industry and civil society.

This is an important time for the NZAB. We are undertaking a variety of projects and initiatives to inform our advice to the Minister. This is why we have devised a questionnaire to help develop advice in a collaborative manner.

Current engagement period: open now through December 6, 2024.

To have your voice heard:

• Download the PDF file below containing the questionnaire (Press ↓ under Share this post).
• Fill out all the questions you wish to answer.
• Send completed questionnaires to gcpc-nzab@ec.gc.ca no later than December 6, 2024.

If your submission is on behalf of an organization, please include the name of the organization with your questionnaire submission.

If you are submitting as an individual, to help protect your privacy, you are encouraged not to provide any personally identifiable information.  

Thank you for your continued engagement to inform Canada’s pathways to net-zero.

Links

• Climate's Bottom Line: Carbon Budgeting and Canada’s 2035 Target 
  
   
  • Technical Annex (Canadian Climate Institute): Options for Canada's 2035 emissions reduction target